Favorites and Sleepers: Phoenix

Note: Eric Smith of INDYCAR.com takes a lighthearted look before each NTT INDYCAR SERIES race at drivers entering the weekend with an inside line to victory lane -- and others who could surprise with a strong result.

Coverage of Saturday’s Good Ranchers 250 begins at 3 p.m. ET on FOX, FOX One, the FOX Sports app and the INDYCAR Radio Network, powered by OnlyBulls.

This primer sets the scene with five favorites and five additional drivers to watch.

The NTT INDYCAR SERIES returns to the Arizona desert for the first time since 2018. However, the series held an Open Test last month, giving teams two full days of track time to prepare for Saturday’s 250-lap race at Phoenix Raceway.

During that Open Test, drivers said Phoenix is expected to race similar to World Wide Technology Raceway and Iowa Speedway. Drivers who have excelled at those short ovals could carry that momentum into the weekend.

Team Penske won two of the last three races at Phoenix (2017-18), while Chip Ganassi Racing’s Scott Dixon captured the other, in 2016.

Favorites

Josef Newgarden (No. 2 XPEL Team Penske Chevrolet)

Newgarden was dominant at Iowa, earning six wins in 18 starts, including a sweep in 2023. He has led 2,151 laps at the .894-mile oval and at least 111 laps in 10 of his last 15 starts there. At World Wide Technology Raceway, he has won five of 10 starts, including four of the last six. In three Phoenix starts, he has finished sixth, ninth and first. He also won the final oval race of 2025 at Nashville Superspeedway. Of his 32 career victories, 18 have come on ovals. He was second fastest in February’s Open Test at Phoenix.

Scott McLaughlin (No. 3 Gallagher Insurance Team Penske Chevrolet)

While McLaughlin is a Phoenix rookie, he had six top-five finishes in his last seven Iowa starts. In five starts at World Wide Technology Raceway, he has four top-five finishes, including a runner-up in 2024. In 18 career short-oval starts at Iowa, WWTR, Nashville Superspeedway and the Milwaukee Mile, he has two wins and 14 top-five finishes.

Pato O’Ward (No. 5 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet)

O’Ward ranked second in oval points last season behind Alex Palou. One of his 2025 victories came at Iowa, where he has two wins and seven top-five finishes in 10 starts. In 32 career oval starts, O’Ward has four wins, nine runner-up finishes and 23 top-five results. He also has five top-three finishes in seven starts at World Wide Technology Raceway, including four runner-up finishes. He was sixth-fastest in the February test at Phoenix.

Scott Dixon (No. 9 PNC Bank Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Dixon scored the fifth-most oval points last season. In six Phoenix starts, he has four top-five finishes, including a 2016 victory in which he led 155 of 250 laps. He also finished runner-up in 2004, fourth in 2018 and fifth in 2017. Though winless in 23 Iowa starts, he has 10 top-six finishes in his last 11 races there, including three runner-up results. Dixon is a two-time winner at World Wide Technology Raceway and finished fourth there last season. His 25 oval wins are the most among active drivers.

Alex Palou (No. 10 DHL Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Palou makes his first Phoenix start but led all drivers in oval points last season, including a victory in the 109th Running of the Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge. In his last five Iowa starts, he has four top-five finishes, also including a win last year and a runner-up result in 2024. He was third fastest in February’s test at Phoenix and enters the weekend coming off a season-opening victory in the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg.

Sleepers

David Malukas (No. 12 Verizon Team Penske Chevrolet)

Malukas finished second in last year’s Indianapolis 500 driving for AJ Foyt Racing and led the most laps at World Wide Technology Raceway before finishing 12th. He added a top-five finish in the second Iowa race and an eighth-place result at the Milwaukee Mile. He ranked sixth in oval points last season and now joins Team Penske. Malukas finished runner-up at World Wide Technology Raceway in 2022 and third in 2023 while driving for Dale Coyne Racing. He was fifth fastest in the February test at Phoenix.

Santino Ferrucci (No. 14 Homes For Our Troops Chevrolet)

Ferrucci is an oval standout, with 10 of his 11 career top-five finishes coming on circle tracks. Last season, he finished fifth in both the Indianapolis 500 and at World Wide Technology Raceway. He also recorded finishes of eighth and 15th at Iowa and another eighth at Nashville, ranking eighth in oval points.

Alexander Rossi (No. 20 ECR Java House Chevrolet)

Rossi finished third in his most recent Phoenix start and 14th and 15th in his other two appearances there. He participated in a November test at Phoenix and owns two oval victories among his nine career wins. He was fastest in February’s Open Test.

Christian Rasmussen (No. 21 ECR Splenda Stevia Chevrolet)

Rasmussen (photo, top) earned top-10 finishes in five of six oval races last season. He won at Milwaukee, finished sixth in the Indianapolis 500 and third at World Wide Technology Raceway while positing sixth and eighth-place finishes at Iowa. He ranked third in oval points and was fourth fastest last month in the Phoenix Open Test.

Will Power (No. 26 TWG AI Honda)

Power has 10 career oval wins, including one in 2024 at Iowa, though that is his lone oval victory since 2020. He struggled on ovals last season, ranking 20th in points in that discipline. Still, in three Phoenix starts, he has two top-three finishes, including a runner-up result in 2017. He was eighth fastest last month in the Open Test at Phoenix.